{"id":384061,"date":"2026-08-11T20:04:34","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T20:04:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/afrikmag.com\/var\/www\/vhosts\/afrikmag.compublic_html\/?p=384061"},"modified":"2026-08-11T20:04:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T20:04:34","slug":"obama-a-qualifie-la-libye-de-sa-pire-erreur-15-ans-plus-tard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/afrikmag.com\/var\/www\/vhosts\/afrikmag.compublic_html\/obama-a-qualifie-la-libye-de-sa-pire-erreur-15-ans-plus-tard\/","title":{"rendered":"Obama a qualifi\u00e9 la Libye de sa \u00ab pire erreur \u00bb \u2014 15 ans plus tard"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Quinze ans apr\u00e8s que l’OTAN a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 renverser Kadhafi, les puissances militaires d’Afrique du Nord semblent avoir tir\u00e9 une le\u00e7on durable de l’effondrement de la Libye, d\u00e9pensant plus de 320 milliards de dollars pour renforcer leurs arm\u00e9es, acqu\u00e9rir des armes de pointe et approfondir leurs alliances afin de ne pas se retrouver aussi vuln\u00e9rables lors d’une future crise.<\/span><\/p>\n

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En 2016, le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Barack Obama fut invit\u00e9 \u00e0 identifier la plus grande erreur de sa pr\u00e9sidence. Sa r\u00e9ponse porta sur la Libye, o\u00f9 une intervention men\u00e9e par l’OTAN avait contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 mettre fin, cinq ans plus t\u00f4t, aux 42 ans de r\u00e8gne de Mouammar Kadhafi.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Dans une interview accord\u00e9e \u00e0 Fox News, Obama a d\u00e9crit sa \u00ab pire erreur \u00bb comme \u00e9tant \u00ab probablement le fait de ne pas avoir pr\u00e9par\u00e9 le lendemain de ce qui, \u00e0 mon avis, \u00e9tait la bonne chose \u00e0 faire en intervenant en Libye \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Il a n\u00e9anmoins d\u00e9fendu l\u2019intervention, arguant qu\u2019elle \u00ab a permis d\u2019\u00e9viter des pertes civiles \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle et a emp\u00each\u00e9 ce qui aurait presque certainement \u00e9t\u00e9 un conflit civil prolong\u00e9 et sanglant \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Obama a \u00e9galement reconnu des \u00e9checs dans la gestion des suites de l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement, conc\u00e9dant qu’il y avait \u00ab mati\u00e8re \u00e0 critique \u00bb concernant le suivi international.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bien qu’il ait d\u00e9fendu l’op\u00e9ration militaire, il a finalement reconnu le r\u00e9sultat.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00ab Et malgr\u00e9 tout cela, la Libye est un v\u00e9ritable chaos \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Obama.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Quinze ans apr\u00e8s la chute de Kadhafi, la Libye reste divis\u00e9e, tandis que l’Afrique du Nord est entr\u00e9e dans une \u00e8re beaucoup plus militaris\u00e9e.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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L’Afrique du Nord n’est plus la m\u00eame<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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Depuis 2011, les principales puissances de la r\u00e9gion ont investi massivement dans la modernisation de leurs forces arm\u00e9es, notamment dans des avions de combat de pointe, des h\u00e9licopt\u00e8res d’attaque, des drones, des syst\u00e8mes de d\u00e9fense a\u00e9rienne, des missiles et des navires de guerre.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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L’Alg\u00e9rie et le Maroc, en particulier, sont devenus les principaux importateurs d’armes conventionnelles majeures en Afrique du Nord, tandis que l’\u00c9gypte a \u00e9galement entrepris un important programme de modernisation militaire.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ensemble, les principales puissances de la r\u00e9gion disposent d\u00e9sormais d’avions de chasse furtifs, de Rafale et de F-16, d’h\u00e9licopt\u00e8res d’attaque Apache, de syst\u00e8mes de d\u00e9fense a\u00e9rienne avanc\u00e9s, de drones, de missiles et de plateformes navales modernes.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Au total, entre 2011 et 2025, l’Alg\u00e9rie, le Maroc, la Tunisie et l’\u00c9gypte ont d\u00e9pens\u00e9 plus de 320 milliards de dollars pour leurs forces arm\u00e9es, selon des calculs bas\u00e9s sur les donn\u00e9es du SIPRI.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ce renforcement militaire s’est d\u00e9roul\u00e9 dans un contexte d’ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale croissante, l’instabilit\u00e9 se propageant de la Libye au Sahel, au Soudan et au Moyen-Orient, tandis que les principales puissances d’Afrique du Nord ont forg\u00e9 diff\u00e9rentes alliances de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 pour consolider leurs positions.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ces d\u00e9penses ne peuvent toutefois pas \u00eatre imput\u00e9es \u00e0 la seule Libye. La rivalit\u00e9 alg\u00e9ro-marocaine au sujet du Sahara occidental est ant\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la guerre de 2011, tandis que l’\u00c9gypte est confront\u00e9e \u00e0 des pressions s\u00e9curitaires plus larges dans toute la r\u00e9gion.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Pour autant, la chute de l’un des \u00c9tats les plus riches et les plus lourdement arm\u00e9s d’Afrique a constitu\u00e9 un puissant avertissement pour les gouvernements de toute l’Afrique du Nord.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Obama<\/svg>\u00a0\u00bb alt=\u00a0\u00bbLe regret exprim\u00e9 par Obama concernant la chute de Kadhafi r\u00e9sonne encore dans une Afrique du Nord qui a d\u00e9pens\u00e9 plus de 320 milliards de dollars pour renforcer ses forces arm\u00e9es.\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb460″ height=\u00a0\u00bb355″ data-original=\u00a0\u00bbhttps:\/\/ocdn.eu\/pulscms-transforms\/1\/HkWktkpTURBXy8xNWZmODQ2NDVmZTYyZjc0YTIzNTYwNDc1Yjk3ZTVhNi5qcGeRlQLNAczNAWPCww\u00a0\u00bb \/><\/picture><\/span><\/p>\n
Le regret exprim\u00e9 par Obama concernant la chute de Kadhafi r\u00e9sonne encore dans une Afrique du Nord qui a d\u00e9pens\u00e9 plus de 320 milliards de dollars pour renforcer ses forces arm\u00e9es.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Le g\u00e9ant p\u00e9trolier africain reste divis\u00e9<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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Le contraste est d’autant plus frappant que la Libye figurait parmi les pays les plus riches d’Afrique par habitant au d\u00e9but de l’ann\u00e9e 2011.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Juste avant le soul\u00e8vement, le FMI estimait que l’\u00e9conomie avait progress\u00e9 d’environ 10 % en 2010, tandis que la croissance hors p\u00e9trole atteignait environ 7 %.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Le pays a \u00e9galement enregistr\u00e9 un exc\u00e9dent de la balance des transactions courantes d’environ 20 % du PIB, tandis que les actifs \u00e9trangers nets combin\u00e9s de la Banque centrale de Libye et de l’Autorit\u00e9 libyenne d’investissement s’\u00e9levaient \u00e0 environ 150 milliards de dollars.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00c0 l’\u00e9poque, le FMI d\u00e9crivait les performances macro\u00e9conomiques de la Libye comme solides et ses perspectives comme favorables, tout en mettant en garde contre le ch\u00f4mage \u00e9lev\u00e9 des jeunes et la d\u00e9pendance au p\u00e9trole.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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En termes de PIB par habitant, la Libye figurait parmi les pays les plus riches d’Afrique aux alentours de 2010, les donn\u00e9es de la Banque mondiale estimant ce chiffre \u00e0 environ 12\u00a0000 dollars, bien au-dessus de l’\u00c9gypte, du Maroc, de l’Alg\u00e9rie, du Nigeria et de l’Afrique du Sud.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Quinze ans plus tard, malgr\u00e9 le fait que la Libye d\u00e9tienne toujours les plus importantes r\u00e9serves prouv\u00e9es de p\u00e9trole brut d’Afrique, estim\u00e9es \u00e0 environ 48 milliards de barils, son PIB par habitant \u00e9tait tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 6\u00a0449 dollars en 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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En 2026, le PIB nominal de la Libye s’\u00e9levait \u00e0 environ 52,5 milliards de dollars, la pla\u00e7ant aux alentours du 17e rang en Afrique, loin derri\u00e8re l’\u00c9gypte (430 milliards de dollars), l’Alg\u00e9rie (317 milliards de dollars) et le Maroc (194 milliards de dollars).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Plus significatif encore, le FMI a averti en avril 2026 que la trajectoire budg\u00e9taire de la Libye \u00e9tait devenue \u00ab insoutenable \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Elle estimait que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire atteignait environ 30 % du PIB en 2025, tandis que la dette publique s’\u00e9levait \u00e0 environ 146 % du PIB, parall\u00e8lement \u00e0 une inflation \u00e0 deux chiffres et \u00e0 une pression croissante sur les r\u00e9serves.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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La Libye devient un avertissement pour l’Occident<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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Paradoxalement, la Libye est aussi devenue un exemple \u00e0 m\u00e9diter dans les d\u00e9bats de politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re occidentaux, invoqu\u00e9e comme un avertissement contre un changement de r\u00e9gime sans plan clair pour la suite.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Plus r\u00e9cemment, le vice-pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain JD Vance a mis en garde contre le risque de laisser l’Iran devenir \u00ab une autre Libye \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Plus t\u00f4t en 2026, l’ambassadeur am\u00e9ricain aupr\u00e8s de l’OTAN, Matthew Whitaker, avait exprim\u00e9 clairement cette inqui\u00e9tude en d\u00e9clarant : \u00ab Nous ne voulons pas d’un autre sc\u00e9nario comme celui de la Libye \u00bb, alors que l’administration Trump cherchait \u00e0 se distancer d’un changement de r\u00e9gime forc\u00e9 en Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Quinze ans apr\u00e8s la chute de Kadhafi, la Libye n’est plus seulement cit\u00e9e comme exemple d’intervention militaire.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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L’expression est \u00e9galement devenue synonyme des risques pouvant d\u00e9couler de l’effondrement de l’ordre politique et s\u00e9curitaire d’un \u00c9tat, tandis que ses cons\u00e9quences ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 faire de l’Afrique du Nord la r\u00e9gion la plus arm\u00e9e du continent.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Quinze ans apr\u00e8s que l’OTAN a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 renverser Kadhafi, les puissances militaires d’Afrique du Nord semblent avoir tir\u00e9 une le\u00e7on durable de l’effondrement de la Libye, d\u00e9pensant plus de 320 milliards de dollars pour renforcer leurs arm\u00e9es, acqu\u00e9rir des armes de pointe et approfondir leurs alliances afin de ne pas se retrouver aussi vuln\u00e9rables …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":45,"featured_media":384062,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[189118,47,197],"tags":[256,204922,85977],"class_list":["post-384061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-afrique","category-politique","tag-barack-obama","tag-mort-de-kadhafi","tag-mouhammar-kadhafi"],"yoast_head":"\nObama a qualifi\u00e9 la Libye de sa \u00ab pire erreur \u00bb \u2014 15 ans plus tard<\/title>\n<meta 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