{"id":367037,"date":"2024-06-28T11:39:42","date_gmt":"2024-06-28T11:39:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/afrikmag.com\/var\/www\/vhosts\/afrikmag.compublic_html\/?p=367037"},"modified":"2024-06-28T11:39:42","modified_gmt":"2024-06-28T11:39:42","slug":"comment-politiques-proposees-trump-pourraient-aggraver-linflation-economiste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/afrikmag.com\/var\/www\/vhosts\/afrikmag.compublic_html\/comment-politiques-proposees-trump-pourraient-aggraver-linflation-economiste\/","title":{"rendered":"Voici comment les politiques propos\u00e9es par Trump pourraient aggraver l’inflation, selon un \u00e9conomiste"},"content":{"rendered":"
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L’\u00e9conomiste Joseph Stiglitz, laur\u00e9at du prix Nobel, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00e0 Business Insider que l’\u00a0\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine \u00e9tait \u00ab\u00a0remarquablement forte\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

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Toutefois, Stiglitz et d\u2019autres pr\u00e9voient une r\u00e9surgence potentielle de\u00a0l\u2019inflation\u00a0et d\u2019autres probl\u00e8mes en fonction du vainqueur de la prochaine\u00a0\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle\u00a0.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00ab\u00a0Je pense qu’un consensus g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, pas seulement mon point de vue, mais presque tous ceux qui mod\u00e9lisent ce qui se passe, dirait que l’administration Trump serait plus inflationniste\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Stiglitz \u00e0 BI. \u00ab\u00a0Dans quelle mesure cela d\u00e9pend de leur radicalit\u00e9. Et cela d\u00e9pend de la position du Congr\u00e8s. S’ils ont un Congr\u00e8s d\u00e9mocrate, ils n’auront pas la capacit\u00e9 de faire ce qu’ils feraient avec un Congr\u00e8s r\u00e9publicain.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Stiglitz a r\u00e9cemment \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 l’origine d’une\u00a0lettre\u00a0sign\u00e9e par plus d’une douzaine d’\u00e9conomistes laur\u00e9ats du prix Nobel. La lettre, obtenue\u00a0en premier par Axios , affirmait que les \u00e9conomistes \u00e9taient \u00ab profond\u00e9ment pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les risques d’une deuxi\u00e8me administration Trump pour l’\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine \u00bb.<\/p>\n

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Les \u00e9conomistes pr\u00e9voyaient des r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9sastreux en cas de victoire de Trump cet automne. \u00ab\u00a0Le r\u00e9sultat de ces \u00e9lections aura des r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques sur les ann\u00e9es, voire les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir\u00a0\u00bb, indique la lettre. \u00ab\u00a0Nous pensons qu’un second mandat de Trump aurait un impact n\u00e9gatif sur la position \u00e9conomique des Etats-Unis dans le monde et un effet d\u00e9stabilisateur sur l’\u00e9conomie nationale am\u00e9ricaine.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Les pr\u00e9sidents Joe Biden et Trump ont tenu\u00a0jeudi leur\u00a0premier d\u00e9bat pr\u00e9sidentiel de 2024\u00a0. Il reste encore un peu plus de quatre mois avant les \u00e9lections, et\u00a0FiveThirtyEight\u00a0rapporte qu’au 25 juin, ses pr\u00e9visions r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que c’est un \u00ab pur tirage au sort \u00bb qui va gagner.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Business Insider a parl\u00e9 \u00e0 Stiglitz de l’\u00e9conomie si Trump \u00e9tait \u00e0 nouveau pr\u00e9sident. Stiglitz a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que l\u2019opinion largement partag\u00e9e est que cela pourrait entra\u00eener une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e, une aggravation des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s et un ralentissement \u00e9conomique potentiel plus large. Des progr\u00e8s consid\u00e9rables ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9s dans la lutte contre l\u2019inflation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Stiglitz a soulign\u00e9 \u00e0 quel point le taux d\u2019inflation s\u2019\u00e9tait remarquablement calm\u00e9 sans conduire \u00e0 un ch\u00f4mage \u00e9lev\u00e9. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage aux \u00c9tats-Unis est \u00e9gal ou inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 4 % depuis fin 2021, une p\u00e9riode historiquement longue de faible taux de ch\u00f4mage.<\/p>\n

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Stiglitz a soulign\u00e9 la promesse de Trump d’augmenter fortement les tarifs douaniers comme l’un des \u00e9l\u00e9ments susceptibles d’aggraver l’inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00ab Ces tarifs sont en grande partie r\u00e9percut\u00e9s sur les consommateurs, ce qui augmente leurs prix et se r\u00e9percute tout au long de la cha\u00eene d’approvisionnement, augmentant encore une fois les prix pour les consommateurs \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Stiglitz.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Une autre solution pourrait \u00eatre la forte r\u00e9duction des imp\u00f4ts propos\u00e9e par Trump \u00ab\u00a0qui ne sont pas pay\u00e9s et l’augmentation du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire par rapport au niveau qu’il est aujourd’hui\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Stiglitz.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00ab Et vu la situation actuelle, je pense que l’on peut consid\u00e9rer que cela serait inflationniste \u00bb, a-t-il d\u00e9clar\u00e9. \u00ab Et les cons\u00e9quences d’une telle situation sont que la Fed serait oblig\u00e9e d’augmenter les taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat, ce qui ne ferait qu’accro\u00eetre l’inflation, m\u00eame si le ch\u00f4mage augmentait et que le PIB ralentissait. \u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Un troisi\u00e8me facteur qui pourrait alimenter l’inflation serait la \u00ab r\u00e9duction drastique de l’immigration \u00bb propos\u00e9e par Trump, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Stiglitz.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n
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Diff\u00e9rents secteurs de l’\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine d\u00e9pendent de l’immigration, et Stiglitz a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que la situation tendue du march\u00e9 du travail pourrait devenir encore plus tendue avec cette baisse de l’immigration.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Stiglitz a \u00e9galement soulign\u00e9 le<\/span>La possibilit\u00e9 d’une abrogation partielle ou totale de la\u00a0<\/span>loi sur la r\u00e9duction de l’inflation<\/span>\u00a0, qui comprenait entre autres une disposition sur les m\u00e9dicaments d\u00e9livr\u00e9s sur ordonnance par Medicare. \u00ab Sans cette disposition, dont les r\u00e9publicains avaient parl\u00e9 d’abroger, les prix des m\u00e9dicaments augmenteront. \u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Outre les risques d\u2019inflation, Stiglitz a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019une pr\u00e9sidence Trump pourrait \u00e9galement signifier un ralentissement du PIB. Un autre probl\u00e8me qui pourrait s\u2019aggraver est la crise des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Stiglitz a soulign\u00e9 que la politique fiscale de Trump pourrait accro\u00eetre les in\u00e9galit\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00ab La r\u00e9duction d’imp\u00f4t est une r\u00e9duction d’imp\u00f4t pour les entreprises et les milliardaires \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Stiglitz. \u00ab Si vous regardez la part des r\u00e9ductions d’imp\u00f4t qui va au bas de l’\u00e9chelle, elle est tr\u00e8s faible. En fait, dans certaines de mes analyses, j’ai sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 qu’il \u00e9tait m\u00eame possible que certaines parties du bas de l’\u00e9chelle voient leurs imp\u00f4ts augmenter. \u00bb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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CNN<\/span>\u00a0et\u00a0<\/span>d’autres<\/span>\u00a0ont not\u00e9 des d\u00e9clarations de la campagne Trump en d\u00e9saccord avec la lettre sign\u00e9e par les 16 \u00e9conomistes.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00ab\u00a0Le peuple am\u00e9ricain n’a pas besoin que des laur\u00e9ats du prix Nobel sans valeur et d\u00e9connect\u00e9s lui disent quel pr\u00e9sident a mis le plus d’argent dans ses poches\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Karoline Leavitt, attach\u00e9e de presse nationale de la campagne Trump, \u00e0 CNN dans un communiqu\u00e9. \u00ab\u00a0Les Am\u00e9ricains savent que nous ne pouvons pas nous permettre quatre ann\u00e9es suppl\u00e9mentaires de Bidenomics, et lorsque le pr\u00e9sident Trump sera de retour \u00e0 la Maison Blanche, il r\u00e9appliquera son programme favorable \u00e0 la croissance, \u00e0 l’\u00e9nergie et \u00e0 l’emploi pour faire baisser le co\u00fbt de la vie et am\u00e9liorer la situation de tous les Am\u00e9ricains. \u00ab\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’\u00e9conomiste Joseph Stiglitz, laur\u00e9at du prix Nobel, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00e0 Business Insider que l’\u00a0\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine \u00e9tait \u00ab\u00a0remarquablement forte\u00a0\u00bb. Toutefois, Stiglitz et d\u2019autres pr\u00e9voient une r\u00e9surgence potentielle de\u00a0l\u2019inflation\u00a0et d\u2019autres probl\u00e8mes en fonction du vainqueur de la prochaine\u00a0\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle\u00a0. \u00ab\u00a0Je pense qu’un consensus g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, pas seulement mon point de vue, mais presque tous ceux qui mod\u00e9lisent ce …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":45,"featured_media":363520,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[189118,197],"tags":[7687,200081],"class_list":["post-367037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-politique","tag-donald-trump","tag-politique-economique-de-trump"],"yoast_head":"\nVoici comment les politiques propos\u00e9es par Trump pourraient aggraver l'inflation, selon un \u00e9conomiste<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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