Fifteen years after NATO helped topple Gaddafi, North Africa\u2019s military powers appear to have drawn a lasting lesson from Libya\u2019s collapse, spending more than $320 billion to strengthen their armed forces, acquire advanced weapons and deepen alliances so they are not left as vulnerable in a future crisis.<\/p>\n
In 2016, US President Barack Obama was asked to identify the biggest mistake of his presidency. His answer focused on Libya, where a NATO-led intervention had helped end Muammar Gaddafi\u2019s 42-year rule five years earlier.<\/p>\n
In an interview with Fox News, Obama described his \u201cworst mistake\u201d as \u201cprobably failing to plan for the day after what I think was the right thing to do in intervening in Libya.\u201d<\/p>\n
He nevertheless defended the intervention, arguing that it \u201cprevented large-scale civilian casualties and prevented what almost surely would have been a prolonged and bloody civil conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n
Obama also acknowledged failures in managing the aftermath, conceding that there was \u201croom for criticism\u201d over the international follow-up.<\/p>\n
Although he defended the military operation, he ultimately acknowledged the outcome.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd despite all this, Libya is a mess,\u201d Obama said.<\/p>\n
Fifteen years after Gaddafi\u2019s fall, Libya remains divided, while North Africa has entered a far more militarised era.<\/p>\n
Since 2011, the region\u2019s major powers have invested heavily in modernising their armed forces, including advanced fighter jets, attack helicopters, drones, air-defence systems, missiles and warships.<\/p>\n
Algeria and Morocco, in particular, have become the leading importers of major conventional weapons in North Africa, while Egypt has also undertaken a major military-modernisation programme.<\/p>\n
Together, the region\u2019s major powers now possess stealth fighter jets, Rafales and F-16s, Apache attack helicopters, advanced air-defence systems, drones, missiles and modern naval platforms.<\/p>\n
Between 2011 and 2025, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt spent more than $320 billion on their armed forces, according to calculations based on SIPRI data.<\/p>\n
This military build-up took place amid growing regional insecurity, with instability spreading from Libya to the Sahel, Sudan and the Middle East, while North Africa\u2019s leading powers forged different security alliances to strengthen their positions.<\/p>\n
However, this spending cannot be attributed to Libya alone. The Algerian-Moroccan rivalry over Western Sahara predates the 2011 war, while Egypt faces broader security pressures across the region.<\/p>\n
Even so, the fall of one of Africa\u2019s richest and most heavily armed states served as a powerful warning to governments across North Africa.<\/p>\n
Obama\u2019s regret over Gaddafi\u2019s fall still echoes across a North Africa that has spent more than $320 billion strengthening its armed forces.<\/p>\n
The contrast is all the more striking because Libya was among Africa\u2019s wealthiest countries per capita at the beginning of 2011.<\/p>\n
Just before the uprising, the IMF estimated that the economy had grown by about 10% in 2010, while non-oil growth reached about 7%.<\/p>\n
The country also recorded a current-account surplus of about 20% of GDP, while the combined net foreign assets of the Central Bank of Libya and the Libyan Investment Authority stood at about $150 billion.<\/p>\n
At the time, the IMF described Libya\u2019s macroeconomic performance as strong and its outlook as favourable, while warning about high youth unemployment and dependence on oil.<\/p>\n
In terms of GDP per capita, Libya ranked among Africa\u2019s richest countries around 2010, with World Bank data estimating the figure at about $12,000\u2014well above Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Nigeria and South Africa.<\/p>\n
Fifteen years later, despite Libya still holding Africa\u2019s largest proven crude-oil reserves, estimated at about 48 billion barrels, its GDP per capita had fallen to about $6,449 in 2025.<\/p>\n
In 2026, Libya\u2019s nominal GDP stood at about $52.5 billion, placing it around 17th in Africa, far behind Egypt ($430 billion), Algeria ($317 billion) and Morocco ($194 billion).<\/p>\n
More significantly, the IMF warned in April 2026 that Libya\u2019s fiscal trajectory had become \u201cunsustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n
It estimated that the budget deficit reached about 30% of GDP in 2025, while public debt stood at about 146% of GDP, alongside double-digit inflation and growing pressure on reserves.<\/p>\n
Paradoxically, Libya has also become a cautionary example in Western foreign-policy debates, cited as a warning against regime change without a clear plan for what follows.<\/p>\n
More recently, US Vice President JD Vance warned against allowing Iran to become \u201canother Libya.\u201d<\/p>\n
Earlier in 2026, US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker expressed the concern plainly, saying, \u201cWe don\u2019t want another Libya-like scenario,\u201d as the Trump administration sought to distance itself from forced regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n
Fifteen years after Gaddafi\u2019s fall, Libya is no longer cited only as an example of military intervention.<\/p>\n
The phrase has also become synonymous with the risks that can follow the collapse of a state\u2019s political and security order, while the consequences have helped turn North Africa into the continent\u2019s most heavily armed region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fifteen years after Gaddafi\u2019s fall, Libya remains divided as North African powers spend more than $320 billion on military expansion and draw lessons from the intervention\u2019s aftermath.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[113,14,115,116],"tags":[374,375,373],"class_list":["post-510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-africa","category-politics","category-world","tag-barack-obama","tag-libya","tag-obama-libya-worst-mistake"],"yoast_head":"\n